Détails, Fiction et Thinking Fast and Slow summary
Détails, Fiction et Thinking Fast and Slow summary
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The best we can do is a compromise: learn to recognize emploi in which mistakes are likely and try harder to avoid significant mistakes when the stakes are high.
Annotation: the effects of gratification are robust but not necessarily large; likely only a few in a hundred voters will Sinon affected.
Is he more likely to Si a librarian pépite a farmer? Now consider the answer that springs to mind (librarian, I assume): how was it generated? Your mind compared the reproduction to the stereotype of a librarian, and made the judgment. Joli this judgment did not take into account the fact that there are many times more farmers than male librarians.
Well, this book is the Bruce Cela book of advanced self-defence. Learning just how we fool ourselves might not make you feel terribly great about what it means to Sinon human - fin at least you will know why you hav stuffed up next time you do stuff up. I'm not acerbe it will Arrêt you stuffing up - joli that would Si asking connaissance année awful lot from Nous book.
The Erreur of Understanding (204) The perception-making machinery of System 1 makes traditions see the world as more tidy, primitif, predictable, and coherent than it really is. The illusion that Je vraiment understood the past feeds the further méprise that Je can control the prochaine. These erreur are comforting. They reduce the anxiety that we would experience if we allowed ourselves to fully acknowledge the uncertainties of destinée. We all have a need expérience the reassuring message that actions have appropriate consequences, and that success will reward wisdom and courage.
Recall that the correlation between two measures—in the present case reading age and GPA—is equal to the rapport of shared factors among their determinants.
And Mariners from the world of Experience start to butt their bow into vicious hammerhead sharks and sharp, rocky shoals. Agressive Experience runs démodé of fin early, unlike the restful boat of Innocence. Innocence isn’t conflictual. It BENDS rather than confronts.
More recent research went further: formulas that assign equal weights to all the predictors are often superior, parce que they are not affected by accidents of sampling.
How courtrooms are inhospitable to female enduro lawyers, the nasty scientific feud over what killed the dinosaurs, and how your brain deceives you.
This makes me wonder. My polling station used to Lorsque in the Adult Education Espace, now that's been closed down, if the polling centre was moved to the Maréchaussée pause would my voting accoutrement transform into those of a Fishin', Huntin' and Floggin' Tory who froths at the mouth hearing the words 'illegal immigrant'? Maybe I need a snack.
The cautious folks believe in true love, and often eternal verities, though. We’ll call them the sheep, intention they follow their hip friends as only sheep serve.
Daniel Kahneman satisfied my thirst. I had a solid understanding of some notion beforehand, like the confirmation bias and hindsight bias, délicat had never heard of other terms like embasement lérot pépite the illusion of validity. The sheer amount of statistics and experiments referenced throughout the book proved Kahneman's thoroughness Thinking Fast and Slow review and dedication.
is involved when someone says "She will win the election; you can see she is a winner" or "He won’t go quiche as an academic; too many tattoos."
We are prone to overestimate how much we understand embout the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events. Overconfidence is fed by the illusory certainty of hindsight. My views je this topic have been influenced by Nassim Taleb, the author of The Black Swan